Sunni rebel forces have launched a surprise offensive in Aleppo, Syria, catching government troops off guard and potentially shifting the balance of power in the ongoing civil war.

At a Glance

• Rebel forces, led by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), have launched a major offensive in Aleppo
• The attack has disrupted a ceasefire brokered by Russia and Turkey in 2020
• Rebels have captured over 50 towns and villages, marking the biggest government territorial loss in years
• Russian and Iranian-backed forces are supporting the Syrian government’s counteroffensive
• The offensive has resulted in the highest death toll in years, with over 300 people killed, mostly combatants

Sudden Rebel Offensive Rocks Aleppo

In a startling turn of events, Sunni rebel forces have launched a major offensive against Syrian government troops in Aleppo, marking a significant escalation in the long-running civil war. The attack, led by the Islamist group Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a wing of al-Qaeda, has overwhelmed government-aligned forces and disrupted the fragile ceasefire negotiated by Russia and Turkey in 2020.

The offensive, dubbed “Deterrence of Aggression” by HTS, caught government forces off guard. Rebel fighters have made substantial gains, entering parts of Aleppo and capturing over 50 towns and villages in the surrounding area. This marks the biggest territorial loss for the Syrian government in years, with regime lines crumbling at an unprecedented pace.

Opposition fighters have seized control of most parts of Aleppo, Syria's second largest city, after launching a surprise offensive against government forces, a war monitor reports. https://t.co/9uMIYULV2e

— dpa news agency (@dpa_intl) November 30, 2024

Escalating Violence and International Involvement

The sudden offensive has reignited significant fighting in the region, leading to a dramatic increase in casualties. According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), over 300 people, mostly combatants, have been killed in the recent fighting, making it the deadliest clash between rebels and pro-government forces in Syria for years.

The escalation has drawn in international actors supporting various sides of the conflict. Russia and Iran, longtime supporters of Assad’s regime, have condemned the offensive and pledged support to Syrian government forces. Russian aircraft have begun assisting Assad’s forces in countering the rebel attack, with the SOHR reporting 23 air strikes by Syrian and Russian planes on the rebel stronghold of Idlib.

Strategic Implications and Regional Dynamics

The timing of this offensive is significant, coinciding with a Hezbollah-Israel truce in Lebanon and increased Israeli attacks on Iran-backed groups in Syria. Analysts suggest that the rebels may be capitalizing on perceived weaknesses in the Syrian regime and its allies.

“They’re thinking this is a time when the Iranians are weakened, when the regime is cornered and when Turkey is emboldened vis-a-vis Russia,” said Dareen Khalifa, a researcher at the International Crisis Group.

A surprise rebel offensive has recaptured Aleppo in just a few days, including parts of the city that the Syrian army had never surrendered before. This stunning feat is the direct consequence of new wars that have erupted outside Syria’s borders. https://t.co/bTYIWqXmSr

— Shelby Holliday (@shelbyholliday) November 30, 2024

The rebels have made strategic gains, cutting off the Damascus-Aleppo M5 highway and controlling the strategic M5-M4 junction. These developments could significantly impact the balance of power in the region and force the Syrian government to negotiate from a weakened position.

As the situation continues to evolve, the international community watches closely. The offensive not only threatens the stability of the region but also highlights the complex web of alliances and interests at play in the Syrian conflict. With millions of displaced people already living in dire conditions in Idlib, the last opposition stronghold, the humanitarian implications of this renewed fighting are a growing concern for aid organizations and neighboring countries alike.